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Early Adoption in the New Millenium:
Surf’s Up, Dude!

By David A. Morrison
TWENTYSOMETHING Inc.

Not long ago, Madison Avenue encountered an entirely new strain of couch potato. Rather than automatically accepting television commercials quid pro quo for their favorite shows, this maverick group used the remote control to surf from one channel to the next. The advertising community responded by creating campaigns that could successfully engage and retain this liberated viewing audience.

A similar challenge is now brewing on the marketing front; the implications on new product introductions (and the repositioning of established brands) are equally staggering. Channel surfing has given rise to an explosive new consumer trend we call "Brand Surfing". By extension of their TVwpe25.jpg (6628 bytes) channel flipping counterparts, Brand Surfers quickly switch from one new introduction to the next. This highly influential, rapidly expanding subset prefers to surf new brands rather than outright adopt or reject them. As uncommitted Innovators, Surfers represent a veritable gold mine to marketers eager to swing the pendulum of brand acceptance in their favor.

Whether their pursuit is active or passive, Brand Surfers ride a rapid succession of introductions in their quest for adventure, empowerment, and knowledge. This market dynamic mirrors the convergence of two highly influential, popular advertising slogans: Nike’s "Just Do It" and Mountain Dew’s "Been There. Done That."

News flash, folks: traditional brand loyalty is in a slump (especially among younger consumers). This fact should not come as a surprise since a growing number of business categories, such as phone service, are being redefined by customers who can switch company allegiances at the drop of a dime. Most consumers will always be fiercely loyal to at least a handful of brands; however, it is increasingly more difficult to access this coveted inner sanctum.

The trend of Brand Surfing knows no boundaries. Transcending endless product categories and demographic groups, it is the collective by-product of several fundamental shifts that will continue to shape consumer behavior well into the next millenium. At the trade level, market entry is now easier than ever due to increased access to information, technology, capital, and distribution. Resulting super saturation in a variety of categories has exponentially increased consumer options. One of the trendier supermarkets on Philadelphia’s Main Line now stocks over 77 different makes and models of bottled water alone!

Concurrently, as the world becomes smaller (read: "global village"), consumers are becoming more worldly. Increased sophistication translates into greater interest in (and comfort with) experimentation across a range of categories. Factor in the legacy of the "Me Generation", coupled with corporate downsizing and a proliferation of line extensions in the 1980/90s, which has lead to diminishing loyalties. Lastly, add a dash of MTV-style channel surfing to create a market with a limited attention span and an insatiable thirst for new experiences.

Viola! So many options, so little time. It is no wonder that an increasing number of Innovators are opting to "play the field".

It is important to emphasize that all Early Experimenters (a.k.a. "Innovators", "Alphas", et. al.) can be Adopters, Rejecters, or Brand Surfers. Within a single product category, an Early Experimenter can simultaneously be an Adopter of one brand, a Rejecter of several others, and a Surfer of even many more. Trial is the action. The processes of Adoption, Rejection, and Surfing cover the spectrum of possible reactions. (Surfing could also be labeled "limited adoption" or "extended rejection"; however, the precedence of one synonym over another is largely semantic.) 

While Surfers may actually like a new introduction, they are easily distracted by the endless array of readily available alternatives. Despite the best of intentions, Surfers are stuck in "trial mode". Experimentation among this pivotal group of brand pioneers has become easier to activate, but at the risk of minimal repeat purchase. While cultivating new markets may be more challenging than ever, it is far from impossible. Witness the stellar rise of relatively recent entries such as 1-800-COLLECT and Arizona Iced Tea who used the new market dynamic to their advantage.

1-800-COLLECT represents a classic example of using branding to redefine a product category. Similarly, Arizona Iced Tea leveraged an oversized packaging innovation to signal an obvious value proposition in a highly cluttered category. Both of these brands generated excitement to attract Brand Surfers and then provided compelling reasons to successfully convert casual experimentation into actual adoption. Without a truly persuasive and relevant point-of-difference, new products and repositionings are dead in the water.

Brand Surfing is more prevalent among crowded categories with low price tags: soft drinks, spirits/beer, entertainment, credit cards, fast food, ad infinitum. Experimentation can take place with reckless abandon when the cost of entry and attendant risk are minimal. The adventure of surfing from one new brand to the next is well worth the admittance fee of a $1 soda or a $6 microbrew.

Both ends of the Innovator spectrum, namely Adoption and Rejection, become much more clearly polarized with pricier categories that command greater commitment. The purchase of the 1998 Plymouth Prowler (a $40,000 retro-style hot rod) or a $3,500 high definition TV is not a casual dabble. Surfing is noticeably absent from "big ticket" items because trial and adoption are one in the same. An inverse relationship, therefore, exists between category accessibility (a la price) and Brand Surfing. The more accessible and crowded the category, the greater the percentage of Innovators who will surf new product introductions.

When collaborating on a new product introduction or major repositioning, we typically help our clients develop a detailed definition of "actual adoption" for each targeted consumer segment: what is the minimum number of widgets a specific customer profile needs to purchase within a set timeframe to qualify as a "repeat" purchase? (Obviously, adoption parameters can vary dramatically from one category to the next.) A well-crafted, client-specific definition permits clearer differentiation between non-, semi-, and fully-committed customers. This benchmark can also serve as a pivotal foundation from which realistic estimates of short and long term performance can be established.

Brand surfing is most dangerous when it flies underneath the radar of your marketing and research departments. If left unchecked, it can wreak havoc on preliminary strategies and tactics, thereby leading to inaccurate projections. The trick is to keep your eye on actual adoption and recognize the interplay of Brand Surfers so that your strategies, tactics, and expectations are based on a grasp of true consumer dynamics.

Critical to any launch (or the equally important decision NOT to launch), the dynamics surrounding Early Adoption are rapidly becoming more complex than ever. Marketers who understand the impact of Brand Surfing on adoption (or lack thereof) stand a much better chance of beating the 95%+ failure rate that plagues new products. Ditto for the trusted custodians of established superbrands that seek to expand their reach of new demo and psychographic consumer segments. (Ignorance is bliss only for the foolhardy and the independently wealthy.)

As with all major trends, the growing propensity of Innovators to brand surf is neither good nor bad. It is simply reality. However, the impact of Brand Surfers can clearly help or hinder the realization of your goals. Marketers who ride this wave have the opportunity to generate maximum returns based on a genuine understanding of current market dynamics. Conversely, marketers that blindly catch this wave, or do not see it coming, risk being soaked in the end because most introductions that are fortunate enough to arrive with a BANG! usually fade away with, at best, a mere whimper. Surfing, if left to its own devices, is more likely to build fads than enduring brands.

Brand surfing is here to stay and its impact will only become more powerful. So don’t get caught off guard by this powerful undercurrent. Catch the wave to your advantage.

David A. Morrison is president of TWENTYSOMETHING Inc. Philadelphia-based and an industry pioneer, his firm specializes in young adult consulting and marketing research. Clients include an impressive array of Fortune 500s, leading advertising agencies, colleges and universities, global nonprofits, and state as well as federal government agencies.  

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                                                                                    © TWENTYSOMETHING Inc.
                                                                                    Reprinted with Permission

This article was reprinted as a feature article, with the author's permission, in the Philadelphia Market Research Association's quarterly newsletter, Research Reporter (Fall 2003 issue).